ANALISIS SPASIAL MODERN DALAM KAJIAN PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK: STUDI GWLR DI PULAU JAWA
Statistik Spasial
Keywords:
AICc, GWLR, Population Growth Rate, Fixed BiSquare Kernel, Penduduk, Sosial, Ekonomi, Jawa, Urbanisasi.Abstract
Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk mengacu pada beberapa faktor yang memengaruhi perubahan jumlah penduduk. Perubahan jumlah penduduk menyebabkan laju pertumbuhan penduduk menjadi tidak terkendali. Di Pulau Jawa, laju pertumbuhan penduduk tahun 2020 hingga 2021 meningkat sebesar 3,125%. Peningkatan jumlah penduduk ini menimbulkan berbagai masalah ekonomi dan sosial. Untuk memahami faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pertumbuhan ini, digunakan Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) dengan pembobot Fixed Gaussian dan Adaptive Gaussian. Model ini dievaluasi menggunakan Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), di mana fungsi kernel Fixed Bi-Square dipilih karena lebih stabil dalam menangkap pola spasial lokal dibanding metode lainnya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan nilai AICc sebesar 137,545, menegaskan bahwa pertumbuhan penduduk bervariasi di setiap daerah. Data mencakup beberapa variabel, termasuk laju pertumbuhan penduduk (LPP), yang diklasifikasikan sebagai 0 jika LPP < 1 dan 1 jika LPP > 1. Faktor lain yang dianalisis meliputi jumlah pasangan usia subur (PUS), PUS peserta KB, tingkat kelahiran total, dan tingkat kematian bayi. Hasil GWLR menunjukkan bahwa di 29 kabupaten/kota, pertumbuhan penduduk signifikan terhadap variabel PUS peserta KB dan tingkat kematian bayi, sedangkan di 71 kabupaten/kota hanya dipengaruhi oleh peserta KB. Temuan ini dapat membantu pemerintah dalam merancang kebijakan berbasis data, seperti optimalisasi program KB dan peningkatan layanan kesehatan ibu dan bayi.
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